College Football Playoff Resume New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day

The traditional Fiesta, Rose, Peach and Sugar Bowls take on their new roles beginning tomorrow night with Penn State and Boise facing off in the “Fiesta Bowl.” This is not the college football we grew up with – and I guess it wouldn’t be – even the year 2000 was a quarter century ago. The 70’s were 50 years back – now transfer portals and NILs rule – but one thing endures – watching the games with some family or friends with a good cigar and drink remains a great way to spend time!

This is the first year under the new College Football Playoff format. If you’re not sure yet of the way things worked – you’re not alone. To help, we’ll explain a little bit of why the system of ranking the 12-team bracket has been problematic; and make some predictions for who meets in the next rounds.

First here’s the bracket so far from the NCAA:

In the bracket above you see the College Football Playoff (CFP) bracket seedings to the left of the team emblem and the final CFP rankings in parentheses to the right. Look at Penn State in the lower right – they were the 6th seed in the bracket yet they were ranked 4th in the CFP rankings going into the playoff.

So, is that a bad thing for PSU? Turns out not to have worked that way.

• the teams seeded 1-4 received a bye in the first round – they advanced directly to round 2
• teams seeded 5, 6, 7, 8 played in their home stadiums in Round 1
• The 5th seed/3rd ranked Texas played at home and beat ACC Champion Clemson who was guaranteed a spot by winning the ACC – a major conference in the CFP – but they were seed 12 and ranked 16
• 6th seed/4th ranked PSU played ACC runner up SMU after losing this year to Oregon and Ohio State
• 7th seed/5th ranked Notre Dame played Indiana which had a strong record but no big wins
• 8th seed/6th ranked Ohio State played at home after not making it to the Big 10 title game and losing at home in their last game to unranked Michigan

The four home teams all won decisively against teams that either won or had great records in conferences weaker than the SEC – widely considered the best and deepest conference. Boise and Arizona State were assured spots as conference champions – SMU and Indiana were committee selections at their rank.

Many of us are Notre Dame or Penn State fans in this region of the country – honestly would we not rather play SMU or Indiana than Alabama or Mississippi?

Another issue is the path to the final.

• Oregon has been the best team all year – their reward is getting having to beat Ohio State (again) and Texas just to reach the final
• Penn State lost to Ohio State (yes, again) in the regular season and Oregon in the Big 10 championship yet get to play the 10 ranked SMU and 9th ranked Boise to reach a huge game against Notre Dame or Georgia and avoid Oregon, Ohio State or Texas in the final.

For this year, it is what it is – the cards are dealt now they play them. Our prediction is the playoff format is changed next year in a way that rankings are more important than seedings.

Other predictions:

-Penn State’s defense is playing at an elite level and controls Boise’s all-world running back Ashton Jeanty and handles Boise

-Notre Dame nips Georgia setting up a classic against Penn State

-Texas takes care of business and ends Arizona State’s Cinderella run

-Oregon beats Ohio State a second time and takes on Texas – with the winner of Oregon/Texas holding the trophy after the national title game.

Feel free to add to the discussion – comment below!